China has taken steps to restrict the broadcast content of satellite television prime time television, with a mandated shift towards “programmes that promote traditional virtues and socialist core values”.
Quoting what they call “excessive entertainment”, fully two thirds of the entertainment programmes on China’s 34 satellite channels have been cut, according to the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television (SARFT).
From now on, each of the country’s satellite channels will be limited to broadcasting two entertainment programs each week, with a maximum of 90 minutes of content defined as entertainment every day during primetime — 7:30 p.m. to 10 p.m.
Channels are also required to broadcast at least two hours of news programming per day, and must broadcast at least two 30-minute news programmes between 6 p.m. and 11:30 p.m.
The remaining time will be taken up with documentaries as well as cultural and educational programmes.
Gone are the dating shows, talent contests, opinionated talk shows and emotional stories “with low taste.”
Actually, and on reflection, that doesn’t sound like a bad idea …
Source: Xinhua.
We have been wading through the European G20 Leaders Summit – Final Communiqué, and came across this little gem under the heading “A global strategy for growth and jobs” …
5. We have agreed on an Action plan for Growth and Jobs to address short term vulnerabilities and strengthen medium-term foundations for growth.
- Advanced economies commit to adopt policies to build confidence and support growth and implement clear, credible and specific measures to achieve fiscal consolidation. …
Ignoring the fluff about “advanced economies” and “building confidence and supporting growth”, the real message is that the Eurozone has just announced the long-awaited “single European Central Bank”. No fanfare. No public popping of champagne corks. Just the bland phrase, “… implement clear, credible and specific measures to achieve fiscal consolidation …”
It has taken sixty years, but finally the dream is to become a reality.
Those who keep up with the play in Geekland will have heard by now that a Dutch company, DigiNotar, has been hacked, and over five hundred Secure Socket Layer (SSL) security certificates have been stolen.
Of interest to us, is that some of these security certificates were apparently assigned to domains used by the CIA, the SIS, and Mossad. In the “trade”, the technical term for this is an “oops moment”.
Not only that, some of the certificates could be used to impersonate Gmail and other Google services. Now, you might not care about the Spooks, but a back door into Google is serious stuff.
Of course, the Iranians are being blamed (with no supporting evidence), by United States researchers, on the basis that Iranian users were targeted. Now, why a country would steal foreign SSL certificates to mess around with their own people is beyond us, but apparently it is all the fault of the United States government. (we are not making this up).
We are then informed that criminals or governments (as if there was any difference) could use the stolen certificates to trick users into thinking they were at a legitimate site when in fact their communications were being secretly intercepted.
So, the lesson is clear, if you happen to be on the CIA.gov website, and you are suddenly asked for your banking details, you now have the right to be a little suspicious.
If you can bring yourself to read the original Computerworld article, it is here: http://bit.ly/pKJGHR
We awake this morning to learn that the Swiss National Bank has agreed to put a floor under the Swiss Franc with respect to the Euro.
We did not consider this as a possibility. it is a huge “all-in” financial bet that (however it comes out), will impact financial markets for decades.
The Swiss Franc is a financial instrument. The Euro is a political construct. They are not even the same type of thing, so why relate one with the other?
It makes zero sense, and we would give a “zero’ possibility for this to work.
As one commentator has said, “Get your seat belts on. Volatility is about to take another monstrous leap.”
[More later, as we have time ...]
Yesterday, an Israeli bus, full of civilians, was attacked by Palestinian gunmen near the Red Sea resort of Eilat.
Surprisingly, given the damage inflicted on the bus, only seven people died in the attack.
True to form, the Israelis responded with a reprisal attack on the gunmen, killing six people, including a senior militant, in the process.
Why are we reporting this? Well, there are three reasons:
Firstly: A number of the “Palestinian gunmen” were wearing Egyptian uniforms, with Egyptian military insignia, and were carrying arms normally issued to Egyptian army personnel;
Secondly: The western media has reported this incident with headlines such as, “Israel pounds Gaza”, without mentioning the previous attack (or showing the above photograph), or mentioning the apparent assistance from the Egyptian army; and
Thirdly: All of the sources mentioned in the western news reports are “Palestinian sources, and residents”, who were obviously nowhere near Eilat at the time of the incident, unless of course they were involved in the initial attack.
We have long reported the tremendous bias in the western media, but this is an example par excellence.
If the media gets any worse our clients won’t need independent sources of intelligence collection and analysis. All they will need to do is read the newspaper and assume the opposite of what is reported.
Herman Van Rompuy has convened a meeting of the Euro area Heads of State or Government for Thursday, 21 July, to further discuss the financial stability of the Euro area as a whole and the future financing of the Greek programme.
Rumours are that, a “soft” Greek default will be announced at the meeting. This will probably be the first of many such announcements as other countries find it difficult, if not impossible, to unwind the web of debt within the EU.
Any announcement of a Greek default at this meeting will come a day before the legislative deadline for adjusting the US debt ceiling.
Whether these two events will be seen as related or separate in the minds of investors, is to be seen. But we may be travelling into a perfect storm, and the ride will be anything but pleasant. Hang on to your hats.
This off the wire services:
The gold spot price reached a new intra-day high at just under US$1,579/oz. Traders are predicting that it will be going higher.
The following “story” was posted on Zero Hedge, overnight:
Ron Paul asked Ben Bernank [Chairman of the US Federal Reserve], if he thought gold was money. Apparently, Bernank almost swallowed his tongue, starred blankly for a few seconds, and then said, “No.”
Paul then asked him why banks held gold on their balance sheet? Why not diamonds? Bernank replied, “Tradition, I suppose.”
So let me get this straight, banks hold billions of dollars of an asset that pays no interest or dividends on their balance sheet for reasons of “tradition”. It has nothing to do with anything else, just tradition. Uh, yea. That must be it.
Classic! Bernank has just revealed his fundamental adherence to fiat money and his massive misunderstanding of real money and economics.
The bottom line:
BUY MORE GOLD AND SILVER immediately if not sooner!
Where do precious metals sit in the great scheme of things? Here:
Source: Zero Hedge
They used to underpin everything, and are still a safe haven in times of trouble.
So if the price of gold is going through the roof, it is because a lot of people see trouble on the horizon, and are seeking a position that they believe is safer than whatever currency they normally use for trade – often U.S. Dollars.
Most, if not all, currencies are fiat currencies today. And all fiat currency transactions rely entirely on market confidence. So when confidence starts to fail … then it is time to worry.
A post at the Zero Hedge blog has caught our attention:
Whereas the financial world is focused on Greece, and whether the austerity measures proposed by the Greek government will actually work or not (nobody really knows), eyes are off the ball regarding a potentially much larger problem: Italy.
“When it comes to the stability of the European dominoes, it is and has always been about Italy, which is not only the second worst country in Europe after Greece on a debt/GDP basis, and also the country with the largest amount of nominal debt, but more importantly has the largest amount of net CDS outstanding.”
When looked at in it’s totality (as the graph in the Zero Hedge post shows) one gets the impression that the Eurozone finances are a bit like trying to push a half inflated balloon into a box. As you push it in somewhere, it will squeeze out somewhere else.
Of course, is that this only happens when the balloon is over-inflated, and to push this metaphor to its limits, sooner or later the balloon will burst.
Shuffling money between the EU members will in no way solve the crisis – it only puts off the inevitable. The answer then is to sell off some of the family silver to somebody outside the immediate financial circle. China would seem to be a likely candidate.
If we are correct, it will be interesting to observe exactly what family silver will be up for sale, and which European nations it will be asked to donate. Such arguments have been known to wreck familial relationships.
The world press is focussed intently on Greece, and whether or not that country will default on its sovereign debt, and whether or not the French government can persuade the Directors at multiple commercial banks to act contrary to their fiduciary duty to their own shareholders, and agree to waive outstanding debts in yet another attempt to bail out the Greek economy.
But in the mean time, it is important to realise that this is not just about Greece, nor is it just about the stability of the Euro, and it is not even about whether or not the European Union can survive, in its current form, should the Euro fail.
It is entirely about a much more serious matter: The fundamental basis of international trade – having a globally recognised tradable currency.
While the international media look towards Europe, with its combined budget deficit running at 6.4 percent of GDP, they are ignoring the implications of the much higher budget deficit being run by the United States at 10.6 percent of GDP.
The issue here is that the U.S. Federal government is limited in its borrowing by Congress, and they are about to hit that limit.
Theoretically, Congress could vote for the limit to be increased, but given the political divide between the parties, and the entrenched positions adopted by both sides of the issue, that is not likely, at least not without significant concessions being made by one side or the other.
There is not even agreement on the best way to reduce the deficit, with the two primary alternatives being promoted along party lines: reduction in government spending, on the one hand (Republican); and increased taxation, on the other (Democrat).
Should America default on its sovereign debt, then US Treasuries could acquire a risk premium of between 0.5 to 0.7 percent. Not much? Well, in real terms that “small” percentage equates to an increased cost of between US$72b and US$100b, per annum.
As one of our colleagues in Europe points out, those figures roughly equate to the entire annual Federal education budget.
U.S. sovereign debt interest payments are due around the middle of August, so this will be crunch time for the Federal Reserve. If Congress cannot agree a way out of this crisis before payment is due, then the value of the US dollar, relative to other countries, will inevitably fall.
Already, the volume of US Credit Default Swaps is increasing. The markets do not have confidence, and neither should we. It does not bode well. August may not be a good month to be holding a surplus of U.S. dollars.
“We have been a little busy”, he said with classic understatement, “… and may be for a while yet”, and as such we have been neglecting this blog (as forewarned). Also, we do not normally comment on matters concerning the Balkan States, but a post on the EUReferendum blog has caught our attention:
It seems that the EU member nations are getting nervous about providing any more bale-out funds to Greece, and are demanding that those banks, pension funds and insurance firms, that currently hold Greek sovereign debt, take steps to assist with any further rescue package.
So that is one side of the debate. On the other side, we find Stefan Homburg, a leading economist, telling Der Spiegel that any involvement in a sovereign bailout by a private company would be illegal?
“(EU) Banks cannot participate (even) voluntarily. An executive board is committed to its company’s welfare, and not the public interest. If it waives outstanding debts at the expense of its own company, this is a breach of trust and punishable by law …”
How true, and how interesting …
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In our previous post about Osama bin Laden, we made the following comment:
“The death of one man – assuming the reports are actually true – is hardly likely to change the status quo.”
This drew a bit of flack from various quarters – we had the temerity to imply that the man might not be dead? How dare we?
It was an “interesting” reaction, given that our comment could simply have been ignored. The fact that it wasn’t, leads us to question why? So perhaps a more formal analysis is required:
Background:
The name “al Qaeda” literally means “the base”. Most journalists take this to mean the centre of the web, or the headquarters, and therefore they place Osama bin Laden at the top of the organisation chart – as the evil mastermind in a James Bond movie*.
But in the Muslim world, “the base” can also mean the financial underpinning required to undertake an enterprise. In this context, Osama bin Laden would be the money-man, rather than the grand strategist. He would be the jihadist equivalent of an angel investor, looking for bright young men with ideas of mayhem, but lacking the finances to make them real. This is the view that many intelligence organisations in the West have historically subscribed to.
In unpicking the network, the normal course is to follow the money. But with al Qaeda that has proven difficult because the money doesn’t stay as money, and it avoids the banking system (for obvious reasons). Instead, it morphs into drugs (Afghanistan’s cash crop), and weapons, and “favours”, and precious metals and jewels, and probably carbon credits as well.
But somebody must be keeping track of all this financial activity, if only to minimise the shrinkage, so somebody must understand the big investment picture. Osama bin Laden has always been considered to be that somebody.
Observations:
Firstly, we are told there are photographs of Osama bin Laden showing fatal wounds to the head. Whether or not these will be released is yet to be decided. We are told that they are very graphic, and may remain classified.
Then there are some photographs that have been “leaked” onto the Web, by a person, or persons unknown. But it was fairly easy for graphics experts to show that these photographs were actually a composite of a perfectly healthy Osama bin Laden, and another unknown man who does appear to have been beaten about the head, and possibly shot.
Thirdly, we are told that DNA confirmation was obtained from Osama bin Laden’s body prior to it being removed from the compound, or even later when it was on board a ship at sea. From what we understand about DNA testing: a) it normally takes 24 to 72 hours to get a definitive DNA test result, and yet this statement was made within 6 to 8 hours of the raid supposedly taking place; and b) a DNA test is only conclusive if compared to DNA taken from a full sibling, of which there are none. So at best, a DNA sample can only prove that the person was part of a wider family group, but it cannot definitively prove who the person is.
Fourthly, we are told that the body was buried at sea, to comply with the requirements of Islam, and to prevent the burial site from becoming a shrine. We note that this would also remove any possibility of exhuming the body at some future date.
Finally, all of the above “evidence” is hearsay, in that we are “told” about the photographs, “told” about the impossibly fast DNA tests, and “told” about the burial at sea.
Analysis:
If we accept that the background reasoning is plausible, then it would be not be in the interests of the West to kill Osama bin Laden. To do so would be like killing the auditor, but leaving the financial system to continue operating. The West would be no closer to closing down the money supply to the active terrorist organisations.
But if he could be snatched, and carried away to another location, where he could be “interviewed” at length, then it might just be possible to understand the money flows, and start to disrupt them.
Of course, the name of Osama bin Laden is so well known and so revered at some levels in Muslim society, that to just kidnap him would cause a total furore, even among moderate Muslims, and result in multiple reprisal attacks from those less moderate. But if appearances led one to believe that he died in the raid – a martyrs death – then all that might be avoided.
Conclusion:
So, given that we have proposed a motive for keeping bin Laden alive, and given the opportunity to seize him, whilst having the means to make it appear that he has died, we can establish a prime facie case in support of our original hypothesis, that Osama bin Laden is still alive, and is being kept in close confinement.
14 May Update:
In a staged and recorded interview with Colin Chapman, on 13 May, George Friedman, the founder of Stratfor, let something slip that further supports the Extrinsic hypothesis that bin Laden is still alive.
Quoting from the transcription:
“The United States has wanted the Pakistanis to do things in support of the United States that the Pakistanis felt would lead to a possible breakdown in Pakistan because of the civil tension between the various factions. A fine line has been walked. With the capture of Osama bin Laden and the assertion that the Pakistanis harbored him or didn’t effectively act against him, there is the temptation, particularly on the part of the Americans, to break with the Pakistanis. [Our emphasis]
* “You only live twice” comes to mind.
Yonhap reports that the South Korean Government has apologised for hundreds of translation errors found in the Korean version of the Korean-European Union Free Trade Agreement, currently awaiting ratification by the National Assembly.
A new version of the translation is being prepared and will be submitted to the National Assembly in place of the erroneous one. However, the amount of rework and checking required is expected to delay the commencement of the agreement.
Trade Minister Kim Chong-hoon bows in a gesture of apology.
Image: YonhapMuch of what is published in the press and on the web is biased. It would be foolish to think otherwise. But occasionally we come across a piece that is a perfect example of misdirection.
The background to this article is that there is/was considerable concern over the state of spent nuclear rods stored at the Fukushima power plant. The tsunami knocked out the power generators, which meant that the circulating water system that kept them cool, no longer worked. There was no immediate danger, but urgent measures needed to be taken to pump water from fire appliances into the pools to keep the water temperature below boiling point. As long as the water did not boil, there was no crisis. All indications from Japan pointed to the fact that the fire crews were winning the battle, and that the situation was manageable.
Given this situation, we were therefore interested to see the following post on the “ZeroHedge” blog, on 21 March 2011, by Tyler Durden.
Quote:
Thermal Images From Fukushima Indicate Blistering 128 Degrees Celsius Zone In Reactor #3
Thermal images from Fukushima have just been released. One is based on data from Die Welt, the other one comes straight from NHK.
First, from NHK:
Next, a picture from Die Welt, emphasizing Reactor 3 and confirming that previous lies that all temperatures at Reactors 1 through 4, were under 100 degrees Celsius, were nothing but. Note the area indicating 128 oC Celsius. We would assume that is the reactor core area (which refutes the lie). If, instead, that is the spent fuel rod area, then we have some very big problems, even if TEPCO is telling the truth for once.
End quote.
On reading this piece, and looking at the photographs, most people would worry about the temperature shown at the number three reactor, and think that a crisis is imminent.
So let’s take a closer look at what is going on here:
Firstly, we will look at the first two images.
The first one is a high-level thermal imaging picture showing the thermal gradients at units 1 and 2. Some temperature variation is visible, but no scale of actual temperatures is given. Without a scale, the image is really meaningless. The image is annotated (in Japanese), “20th Day”, but no month is given. We note that unit 2 appears to have a thermal profile consistent with an operating unit. We also note that the background infrastructure (ancillary buildings, pipe-work, et cetera), appears to be intact.
The second one is a high-level thermal imaging picture showing the thermal gradients at units 3 and 4. Again, some temperature variation is visible, but no scale of actual temperatures is given. So once again, without a scale, the image is really meaningless. This image is undated. We note that unit 3 is annotated 62 degrees, and that unit 4 is annotated 42 degrees. We also note that damage to both units is very evident, and that considerable damage, and rubble, is also apparent in the surrounding area.
So, considering these first two pictures together: we have one picture, which appears to have been a “before” image that has the day of the month, but not the actual month itself, so it could have been taken before the tsunami hit; and we have another picture, which appears to be an “after” image that is undated, but is annotated with temperatures that would be consistent with keeping the storage pools below boiling point.
Now, let’s have a look at the third image, the picture from Die Welt.
Once again, we have a high-level thermal imaging picture, at approximately twice the scale of the second picture (above), and taken at approximately the same time. Some temperature variation is visible, but no scale of actual temperatures is given. Without a scale, this image is also meaningless. Also, the image is also undated. But on this image we note that the larger area of white, surrounded by red, – the thermal imaging signature – is annotated 62 degrees (which agrees with the second picture, above), and we also note that another, smaller area of white, surrounded by red, is annotated 128 degrees.
It is unclear how two areas with visually identical heat signatures could have a temperature difference of 66 degrees, i.e. a 100% variation, and still present a value within a one degree precision. Not only that, but in a more detailed study of all three images, we note that the annotations in the first two pictures show signs of being present when the image was captured. The temperature annotations in the third image appear to have been added at some point after the image was initially captured. We would therefore place less reliance on the annotations in the third image.
So, we have a slightly more enlarged picture of unit three, that appears to have been taken at approximately the same time as the second picture. But you will also note that the typeface use in the annotations that are present in this picture is different to the typeface in the original picture. That is curious, but does not ipso facto imply anything untoward.
What is of concern, apart from the lack of colour scale and gradient key information, is the inference that 62 degrees can be differentiated from 128 degrees when the thermal imaging colours are the same. The only rational explanation that we can see is that the temperature of 128 degrees has been inserted in a deliberate attempt to deceive.
In conclusion, the hypothesis is that this article is nothing more than propaganda, based on the alleged tampering of the third image (the first two images are there to create an impression of authenticity). In our view, this is carefully manufactured information, created from a disjoint series of facts, that is intended to create a false impression that is of use in furthering the aims of the person or persons promulgating it.
In looking at the three images, in sequence, we are lead down a path that says, “Here is an aerial photograph of reactors; here is another aerial photograph of reactors with temperature information; and here is yet another aerial photograph with the conclusion we want you to take away from this exercise”.
It is a classic propaganda example.
Update: Mar 26, 2011:
A level of concern has been raised over the status of Reactor 2 at Fukushima Daiichi. It appears that part of the internal core of the reactor may have partially melted. This may, or may not, be significant from a safety view, depending on whether the integrity of the pressure vessel and the containment vessel have been compromised or not.
But this update does not implicate Reactor 3, which was the original subject of this post, so our comments regarding the propaganda are in no way diminished.
There has been an incredible degree of hype and misinformation in the popular press about the Incident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.
What we propose to do here, is to take the official statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and add a lay-person’s explanation of the science involved. Our comments will be in italic typeface.
2110 CET, 12 March 2011 Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that the explosion at Unit 1 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi plant occurred outside the primary containment vessel (PCV), not inside. The plant operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), has confirmed that the integrity of the primary containment vessel remains intact.
The key phrase here is that the explosion occurred outside of the primary containment vessel, not inside, i.e. not within the reactor itself, and therefore it resulted from an non-nuclear incident. We will come back to this point at the end of out explaination.
As a countermeasure to limit damage to the reactor core, TEPCO proposed that sea water mixed with boron be injected into the primary containment vessel. This measure was approved by Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) and the injection procedure began at 20:20 local Japan time.
Pumping sea water into the primary containment vessel indicates that the reactor required cooling, which indicates a failure in the normal cooling mechanism for the primary containment vessel. Again, the failure is non-nuclear in that the cooling mechanism was damaged by the earthquake or the resulting tsunami, but the containment vessel for the radio-active core was not damaged.
It also indicates that the primary reaction was successfully shut down (by inserting the control rods), but the secondary reaction, which is caused by the further decay of the byproducts, continued to create heat. The inclusion of boron in the sea water would have effectively stopped the reaction.
Japan has reported that four workers at Fukushima Daiichi were injured by the explosion.
This is further indication that the explosion occurred outside of the primary containment vessel.
NISA have confirmed the presence of caesium-137 and iodine-131 in the vicinity of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1. NISA reported an initial increase in levels of radioactivity around the plant earlier today, but these levels have been observed to lessen in recent hours.
Caesium-137 and Iodine-131 are radio active isotopes that are created as temporary by-products of a nuclear reaction, and are usually consumed again as part of the normal ongoing reactions. They are comparatively short lived, and are usually consumed as part of a secondary reaction. The fact that they have been detected outside of the primary containment vessel indicates that the temperature had risen due to secondary reactions to the point where the fuel rods had started to leach these elements into the cooling water. There was no danger of Uranium leaking from the core because it is held as Uranium Oxide which has a melting point of around 3000 degrees Celsius.
Containment remains intact at Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2 and 3.
Presumably only one reactor was running at the time, or the diesel backups for the other reactors were not affected by the tsunami.
Evacuations around both affected nuclear plants have begun. In the 20-kilometre radius around Fukushima Daiichi an estimated 170000 people have been evacuated. In the 10-kilometre radius around Fukushima Daini an estimated 30000 people have been evacuated. Full evacuation measures have not been completed.
There is obviously concern over the fact that some caesium-137 and iodine-131 were released into the atmosphere. Caesium-137 is soluble in water, and so disperses readily in the sea. It has a radioactive half-life of about 30 years, but once dispersed is of no real danger. Iodine-131, on the other hand has a half-life of about 8 days, and is commonly used for therapeutic treatments in medicine.
The Japanese authorities have classified the event at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 as a level 4 ‘Accident with Local Consequences’ on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). The INES scale is used to promptly and consistently communicate to the public the safety significance of events associated with sources of radiation. The scale runs from 0 (deviation) to 7 (major accident).
None of the above details detract from the point that technically there was a radioactive leak, as a result of this incident.
Japan has also confirmed the safety of all its nuclear research reactors.
The IAEA continues to liaise with the Japanese authorities and is monitoring the situation as it evolves.
So the incident is over, the central pressure vessel remained intact, and the reaction was shut down in accordance with normal processes.
The thing that makes this noteworthy (and newsworthy) was the explosion in the roof area of the building. One suggestion is that the operators were venting steam as part of the emergency cooling process, and that the temperatures and pressures involved, the water molecules may have “disassociates” into oxygen and hydrogen. If that were the case, the hydrogen would have accumulated under the roof, causing an explosion as soon as it was ignited by a spark.
——————–
Update: If you want a another opinion, or wish to learn more about how nuclear energy actually works, and the safeguards in place, you could do little better than read the article at http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/
Reuters reports that China has accepted the nomination of United States Commerce Secretary Gary Locke as U.S. Ambassador.
This is a move welcomed by both countries as they try to strengthen ties and develop more mutual trust.
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Reuters reports that Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, has held a meeting with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, in Moscow.
The purpose of the meeting was to discuss economic ties between the two countries. Biden emphasised that the United States wanted to strengthen economic ties with Russia, but could not agree to Putin’s request for visa-free travel between the two countries.
The South Korean Unification Ministry has issued a statement saying that the North Korean Red Cross has proposed talks in Panmunjom, on 9 March, to discuss the repatriation of thirty-one North Korean fishermen who drifted into South Korean waters in the Yellow Sea last month.
Four of the North Koreans wish to remain permanently in the South.
The North Korean Red Cross propose to bring friends and family of the “defectors” to the meeting, to meet with the four men concerned.
Update – 9 March:
In the event, North Korea used the meeting to plead for rice aid.
South Korea refused to discuss the topic of rice aid, until the North apologises for last year’s attack on the Cheon-an and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.
Associated Press reports that the Communist newspaper, Beijing Daily, has dismissed the possibility that protest movements, similar to those that have occurred in Arabia and the Middle East, could occur in China.
A front page editorial is quoted as saying that such protests “bring nothing but chaos and misery to the citizens”. It also goes on to criticise people for using the Internet “to organise illegal meetings”.
We see the publication of this article, at this juncture, as evidence that the Chinese Communist Party are actually quite worried about recent developments.
Improvements in the Chinese economy, based on technological growth, is resulting in the emergence of a middle class that has some concept of individual dignity and self-worth. Such a middle class is hard to control in a communist system, and therein lies the threat that worries the Party. History shows that revolutionary movements have their genesis in people who are well educated, and better informed. Exactly what you get in a technological middle class.
A Philippine oil prospecting ship has been harassed by two Chinese patrol boats near the Reed Bank in the South China Sea. The Philippine military responded by dispatching two military aircraft to the area.
Lieutenant General Juancho Sabban said that the Chinese patrol boats appeared to be threatening to ram the civilian ship. A Philippine navy patrol vessel has now been sent to patrol the area surrounding Reed Bank, and provide some protection.
Reed Bank is approximately 130 Nautical Miles from the coast of the Philippines island of Palawan. It is also approximately 75 nautical miles from the Spratley Islands, which are claimed by both China and the Philippines.
This is a further example of China asserting claims of sovereignty over all of the seas that touch its borders, ignoring other countries exclusive economic zones, and irrespective of the provisions of international maritime law. It is all about ensuring future access to natural resources.
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has claimed responsibility for killing Shahbaz Bhatti, the government Minister for Minorities.
Bhatti was the only Christian minister in government, and also one who spoke out against a law that mandates the death penalty for insulting Islam.
It has been noted by one of our contacts that at least one Imam has taken the position that speaking out against the law is itself an insult to Islam.
And so, the circular arguments that justify violence and terror against non-Muslims, and against those who would seek to modernise legal practice, continue to get more convoluted.
Whether Bhatti was killed because he was Christian, or whether he was killed because he spoke out about an draconian law, is therefore a matter for conjecture. We are however left with an impression that religious killings are fast becoming perfectly acceptable within Pakistan, something that all foreign business people should be aware of, and guard against when visiting the country.
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In celebration of the ninety-second anniversary of the uprising of the Korean nation against occupation by the Japanese Empire, South Korean President LEE Myung-bak has called for new talks with the North.
This has been echoed by the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, and Special United States Representative to North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, both of whom referred to “conditional” talks.
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Reuters reports that calls for anti-government protests across China has resulted in a significant show of force by police.
The call was made from a U.S. based Chinese language website for the Chinese people to emulate the popular revolutions currently sweeping the Middle East.
Publicly, Communist Party officials have dismissed suggestions that it is concerned at the possibility of a popular uprising. However, Beijing has instigated measures to censor online discussions of the Middle East situation, demonstrating that it remains highly nervous about opposition to its one-party rule.
Readers who have been with us for a while may remember that we see the significant difference in living standards between the affluent east coast, and the relatively impoverished hinterland of China, as being one of the major risks to Chinese political and economic stability. The relatively heavy-handed response to this call for protests indicates that this risk remains a factor in Chinese thinking.
The Japanese Foreign Minister, Seiji Maehara, has announced that Japan will now refer to the Kuril Islands as, “territories under sovereignty that has no legal grounds”. He went on to say that Japan’s stance, regarding the islands, has not changed.
Previously Japan has referred to the Russian presence on the Islands as being an illegal occupation. Softening the wording (albeit in lawyer speak) is a gesture towards dialogue over the issue.
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The 10 years since September 11, 2001 have continued to highlight a long-understood, but little acknowledge fact about the intelligence community. Simply put, military intelligence services have historically been, and continue to be, more efficient, effective, and professional than their civilian counterparts. This is not limited to the United States, but has been a major trend the world over since the end of the Second World War. This has not attracted much attention. That’s not surprising, as how can some sergeant in civilian clothes, lurking in a back-alley in some foreign country, negotiating with some local gangster to buy military secrets, going to compare with the image of James Bond.
Most countries in the world have two different organizations for obtaining, analyzing, and disseminating intelligence of a military nature: military intelligence services and civilian intelligence services. By far, civilian intelligence services tend to be the most well-known (or infamous) and are almost always tasked with conducting traditional espionage operations (recruiting spies, bugging offices, stealing information, etc…..). The most famous of these are the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, previously MI6), and Israel’s Mossad (external intelligence) and Shin Bet (domestic intelligence). Most people have at least heard of these agencies, usually because of some scandal or misbehavior that comes to light in the news. In contrast, few civilians know anything at all about their countries actual military intelligence capabilities. The U.S. Army has 28,000 personnel in its Military Intelligence Corps as well as more in the ultra-secret Intelligence Support Activity (ISA). The British Army possesses their own Intelligence Corps and the Special Reconnaissance Regiment (SRR), and the Israel Defense Force (IDF) includes military intelligence, known as AMAN, as an entirely separate branch of service, on a par with the Infantry or Armored branches.
While not very well-known, military intelligence agencies are often remarkably effective at their jobs, often in contrast to their civilian counterparts, who sometimes find their roles usurped by the actual military when they fail to do their jobs effectively. Mossad, Shin Bet, and the CIA in particular have long suffered from repeated blows to their professional reputations. The CIA spent most of the Cold War propping up dictatorships like the Shah of Iran, or participating in covert actions that did little to secure the defense of the US. Along with this is the Agency’s laundry list of scandals and criticisms like the Iran-Contra Affair, allegations of torture and waterboarding, and lack of skill at infiltrating terrorist groups. Many of these criticisms are legitimate, since many career Agency officers eventually write their memoirs complaining about the bureaucracy and lack of effectiveness that have plagued the Agency for decades.
In Israel, Mossad, once a model intelligence service, is now sometimes viewed as renegade and out of control. Shin Bet, despite its excellent spy networks in Palestinian communities, has long been accused of using torture and ill-treatment of detainees, allegations that caught the attention of the Israeli justice system in the past. The most effective intelligence collection agencies in the country are now AMAN and the IDF’s Intelligence Corps.
On the other hand, military intelligence agencies in these three countries tend to be extremely effective and, even when they’re not, they repeatedly show the ability to adapt and improve. In the U.S., the Army’s Intelligence Support Activity is a kind of jack-of-all-trades, being tasked to recruit informants in terrorist networks, gather signals intelligence on enemy and hostile countries and organizations, conduct undercover operations, and gather intelligence prior to major combat actions. If this seems like stealing some of the CIA’s responsibilities, that’s exactly what it is, and it isn’t the first time in American history it has happened. During the Vietnam
War, the CIA’s South Vietnam station was the largest CIA outfit in any country at the time. Despite the money and manpower involved, the CIA, in a fact admitted by at least one case officer turned author, simply failed at counterinsurgency and military intelligence. Because of this, the Army Special Forces (Green Berets) took on the responsibility of gathering Human Intelligence (HUMINT) by setting up Project GAMMA (Detachment B-57) in June 1967 to conduct covert intelligence collection. Under the Green Berets, GAMMA became so successful that by 1968, the small detachment of six Green Berets and hundreds of Vietnamese working in 13 intelligence nets (spy rings) were providing over 60 percent of effective intelligence concerning North Vietnamese activities in Cambodia.
Aside from the ISA, the rest of the US Army Intelligence apparatus, despite bumps, tends to perform with a high degree of effectiveness. While not as glamorous as recruiting spies or running undercover operations, interrogating prisoners of war, collecting enemy documents and maps, and analyzing maps and reports makes up most of what military intelligence personnel do. As so far, they’re leaving the civilians in the dust.
The air forces and navies, of the countries mentioned, also have intelligence operations. But it has always fallen to the army to do most of the work. Air force and naval intelligence mainly concentrate on their opposite numbers in potential enemy nations. The army intel professionals have always tended to deal more with the “big picture” and the business of finding out everything needed to win.
Reuters reports that some officials from Reliance ADA Group, which controls Reliance Communications, have been “examined” by authorities.
No reason for the “examination” was given.
Zhou Xin and Tom Miles, writing for Reuters, report that China is planning to establish a “Foreign Investment Review Board” to review all cases where foreign companies are engaged merger and acquisition activity in China. This is being done in the interests of “national security”.
The Chinese definition of “national security” is notoriously broad, encompassing a diverse range of sectors including agriculture; food manufacture; transportation; information technology; energy supply and distribution; heavy engineering; and mining and mineral production.
This measure, that is due to come into effect in March, is possibly in answer to those countries that have previously blocked Chinese investment on the grounds of national security. In effect, it is seen as a tit-for-tat response.
China already has anti-trust legislation in place. This was used in 2008 to prevent Carlyle acquiring construction equipment manufacturer, Huiyuan.
China is reported to have attracted US$105.7bn in foreign direct investments in 2010, up 17.4% from 2009.
Japan has restated its claim over the disputed Kuril Islands which were occupied by the Russians towards the end of World War II.
Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara says that Russia has no claim to the islands under international law, and the presence and build-up of troops are occupying forces, that should be withdrawn.
A spokesman for the Japanese Prime Minister said that overcoming the territorial issues is essential before further economic co-operation can be expanded.
Nobody is mentioning it, but this is all about marine resources, both aquatic and subterranean.
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As we said previously, we have been watching the situation in Egypt, although not reporting it here.
National Radio’s Morning Report, took the position this morning that Hosni Mubarak would resign at 10.00 pm local time (9.00 am, New Zealand).
That did not happen.
It seems that our assessment has been correct, and he has refused to go (although not in the way we expected). This leaves us with a very confused situation.
Mubarak has effectively transferred all operational control to Omar Suleiman, and may have thought that he could stay on in the Presidential Palace, as a titular head. However Suleiman is not trusted by the population because of his association with the Secret Police, which is, to put it mildly, not a popular organisation.
It now comes down to what the Army will do.
The news media are still focussed on the civilian protests, expecting them to march on the palace to seize control, but allowing a civilian uprising or revolution is probably the least desirable outcome for everyone, and certainly the most unpredictable. The slogans may be all about democracy, but no revolution has ever delivered a true democracy. This would be no exception.
So the Military actually has two choices, they either need to remove Mubarak immediately, before the civilian “revolution” gets under way, or they need to prevent the civilian “revolution” through a show of force, thus protecting Mubarak by implication.
Our pick is that the military will take the former approach. For two reasons: 1. Coup D’Etat have a history of success (although not without risk), but would probably pit the Army against the Presidential Guard; and 2. Taking action against the palace would avoid the Army having to show a demonstration of force in regard to the crowds, or perhaps even having to fire on unarmed civilians, if the show of force failed to defuse the situation.
This means that the Army must act now. One hopes that they have previously prepared contingency plans for such a situation.
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The military talks in Panumnjom got off to a good start. Nobody walked out.
However, reports are that little material progress was made during the nine hours of pleasantries and positioning, other than South Korea agreeing in principle to a resumption of Red Cross talks on humanitarian issues.
North Korea is pushing for Ministerial level talks at the earliest possible date, whereas South Korea is being more circumspect.
We find it interesting that North Korea has exhibited a sense of urgency over these talks, ever since they first requested them. We also note that South Korea is in no great hurry. There are a number of agendas at play here.
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Our reporting has been sparse of late.
This is because the Open Source Intelligence (OSInt) community (including Extrinsic) has become somewhat distracted by the developments in Egypt and the rest of North Africa.
Although we usually limit our reporting to developments in the Asia and Pacific regions that could conceivably impact trade and personal safety, we are still interested in political developments in the rest of the world.
Particularly so when those developments could adversely affect the shipment of goods through the Suez Canal, or other major trade routes.
Although we do not intend to post comments about Egypt (or other North African nations) on this blog, we are watching development closely, and asking pertinent questions such as, “Who organised and paid for the professional banners used by the “spontaneous” protesters in Tahrir Square?”; ”Who kept the protesters fed and watered over a fourteen day in situ protest?”; and “Who provided the services required for bodily functions during that period?”. There is much that the media is not saying, that we find interesting.
Our main concern though, is for the security of the Suez Canal. The Egyptian Army seems to have this firmly under control.
A change in regime in Egypt is not certain, but if it does eventuate, it has the potential to impact the political situation throughout the rest of the region. This is why we are so interested.
If you would like to have more detailed information on current developments in North Africa, and our view on how this may play-out, please feel free to contact us here.
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Agence France-Presse reports that China has signed a contract to build a railway network in Iran.
The network will consist of 5,300 kilometers of track and supporting infrastructure. The project is estimated to be worth US$13bn.
We cannot confirm whether this railway network will link with one already under construction in Pakistan, but that would be a logical development.
We note with some irony that sanctions imposed by the West on Iran, over its Nuclear ambitions, are having the unintended consequence of extending Chinese geopolitical reach and influence further westward.
Preliminary military talks have started in Panmunjom. No details about the subject matter have been released.
These talks are at Colonel level, so we presume they are about finalising a list of topics, the agenda, protocol, et cetera, in preparation for more senior talks to follow.
It is a start.
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Agence France-Presse reports the capture of a “pirate mothership” off the southwestern coast of India.
Fifty two people were reported to be on board. However, but it is not clear how many were actual pirates, and how many might be hostages.
Indian Defense Ministry spokesman, Captain M. Mambiar, is quoted as saying that the “mothership” is a Thai vessel that was hijacked in September 2010 off the coast of Somalia.
A “mothership” is a vessel used to operate smaller and more manoeuvrable craft away from coastal facilities.
The use of such a vessel vastly extends the range of operations for the pirates. It indicates a step-change in organisational capability. It is one thing to spontaneously capture a ship and bring it to port. But a fair degree of forward planning and logistic support is required to operate a ship for an extended period at sea, especially one with a sizeable number of people on board .
This does not necessarily mean that incidents of piracy will increase. But it does mean that the area of operations for the pirates has now increased, making it harder for the international naval forces to find them.
Thein Sein, who retired from the army to contest last year’s elections, has been appointed as President by, “a majority vote”.
The military are still firmly in control.
However, they now feel the need to present a facade of democracy – this is a good thing – they are starting to take note of geopolitical opinion.
There are reports of fighting between Cambodian and Thai troops near the Preah Vihear temple.
This temple is on the border between Thailand and Cambodia. The temple and the surrounding area is claimed by both countries, and has been the scene of tensions in the past.
No casualties have been reported.
KCNA reports that North Korea has again proposed that talks be held between the North and South Korean legislatures to “open a new phase for peace and reunification”. This is following its earlier request for military talks.
South Korea has yet to respond.
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The BBC reports that Pakistani security forces have exchanged fire with Afghan security forces in the Khost province in Afghistan. According to the report, one Pakistani was killed and three others wounded.
As is usual in these situations, stories from both sides differ.
The Pakistani version of events is that they were attacked by Afghan troops. The Afghans, however claim that Pakistani soldiers attacked an Afghan security post, using heavy weapons, so fire was returned.
In a somewhat bizarre twist, a Pakistani government spokesperson has also claimed that a Pakistani security post was attacked by NATO forces from across the border.
As often happens, the conflicting reports leave us with no idea as to the real sequence of events.
One possibility that has been put forward, is that the Pakistanis were providing indiscriminate covering fire to allow infiltrators to cross over the border, and the Afghanistan troops responded by returning fire with considerably more accuracy. This would explain the one-sided nature of the casualty count.
Xinhua has reported that the protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo, have been fired upon by Egyptian Army units.
It is our assessment that this report has a high probability of being ‘open’ propaganda.[1]
We have found no other evidence in support of this report. Also, indications to date would indicate that rank and file soldiers are supportive of the protests, although we are not so confident that the same can be said for the Officer Corps.
Nothing gets published by Xinhua without Chinese government approval, and this attempt to draw a parallel with the events that occurred in Tiananmen Square, in June 1989, would appear to be for internal consumption, or aimed at ex-pat Chinese who retain close familial links with mainland China.
The last thing the Chinese government wants is for young and impressionable Chinese to hear about the events unfolding in Egypt, and to get inappropriate ideas.
[1] Most propaganda contains one or two grains of truth. ”Open” propaganda contains none.
The British Sunday Mail reports on an aspect of new technological developments that is not often mentioned in the popular Western press. This is the transference, or virtual export, of atmospheric, soil, and water pollution from purchasing countries in the west, to manufacturing countries in the east.
The above photo is of Baotou, in Inner Mongolia, an area of China almost entirely unseen by foreign visitors.
It shows a lake in the foreground which reportedly is severely polluted with tailings from the manufacturing process used to extract rare-earth minerals, which are vital to the production of “Green” technology. China has the world’s largest known deposits of these minerals.
“Rare earths” are so named, not because of their scarcity, but because they do not form seams of ore like copper or tin. Rather they must be extracted from other minerals through chemical processes that produce toxic residue as a by-product.
Two rare earths are central to the production of “green” technology.
The first is Lithium, a crucial ingredient in the lithium-ion batteries used as a power sources for consumer electronics and in electric and hybrid cars.
The second is Neodymium, commonly used in an alloy, with Iron and Boron, to make the extremely powerful magnets required for use in the electric motors in cars, and the generators used in wind turbines.
Thus we see another validation of the “law” of unintended consequences.
The purchase of a hybrid car, and the ongoing charging of that car from wind-generated electricity, is considerably in environmental debt, even before it is driven out of the showroom.
The full article that formed the basis for this report can be found here.
A Chinese patrol ship, the Yuzheng 201, has been detected near the Senkaku Islands by the Japanese Coast Guard.
The patrol ship, was 29 kilometers (15.7 nautical miles) northwest of Kuba Island when it was discovered.
The Japanese warned the patrol ship not to enter Japanese territorial waters, to which the Chinese responded that, “The Senkaku Islands are an integral part of Chinese territory. We are conducting legitimate operations”.
The Chinese ship remained in the general area for a further three hours, and then withdrew.
We are informed that this is the same ship that was seen in similar circumstances last November.
This is just one of a series of probes on the part of the Chinese since a Chinese trawler rammed a Japanese patrol ship in September of last year.
The good news is that the Chinese ship deliberately avoided making any moves that could be considered hostile.
The bad news is that the Chinese will never give up a claim to territory, once it has been made. The Senkaku Islands will remain in dispute for any foreseeable future.
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South Korea has proposed that military talks at Panmunjom resume on 11 February.
This meeting is intended to agree the logistics and protocol for higher level talks some time in the future.
At the time of reporting, there has been no response from North Korea.
So, the Koreans rush along at glacial speed … but at least they have the appearance of moving in the right direction.
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King George Tupou V, of Tonga, met with Vice President Xi Jinping, in Beijing.
The meeting was to reaffirm the continuance of arrangements for China to maintain a naval intelligence monitoring facility in the islands, and to have access to port facilities for Chinese oceanographic ships.
Note: This comment was originally appended to the report on the Moscow Airport suicide bombing, as a passing comment. However, because it has application at any international airport, and some large domestic airports, we think it should stand on its own.
There are three areas in airports where people should be vigilant, especially when travelling to or from destinations that would be a likely political target, or where there is a history of terrorist activity.
These are:
- The baggage check-in area, especially when long queues have formed;
- The public refreshment areas, at any time when they are busy; and
- The arrivals hall, as in the Moscow airport incident.
We recommend checking baggage as soon as the airline desks are open for your flight, and before any queues have had a chance to form; then passing directly through immigration and security; and then seeking refreshment once those formalities are completed. It is worth noting that all airline lounges are now sited to facilitate this.
If you are being met on arrival, it is a good idea to arrange to meet somewhere away from the customs exit, such as close to a specific car rental booth, or by a large bank of vending machines. Do not offer to wait outside the terminal for somebody to pick you up — random drive-by shootings are not uncommon in some countries.
